福島から200km圏は、10年以内に約20万人が発癌

マーチン・トンデルのデータ

• チェルノブイリの事故から10年間、実際に発癌した人の独自統計
• 福島原子力発電所、100キロ圏で、2021年までに103,329人が発癌
• 福島原子力発電所、200キロ圏で、2021年までにプラス120,894人が発癌
• 福島原子力発電所、200キロ圏で、2021年までに合計22万4223人が発癌

ECRR(放射線リスク欧州委員会)

• 内部被曝を考慮しているデータ
• 福島原子力発電所の事故で、20万8310人が10年以内に発癌

ICRP(国際放射線防護委員会)のデータ

• 内部被曝を考慮していない（日本が採用）
• 6158人が、この先50年で発癌。
• 事故がなくとも50年で250万人が癌になるので、そのうち6158人の増加は、無視できる。

まとめ

チェルノブイリの実際のデータと、
内部被曝を考慮したデータが、
発癌数約20万人と近い数字を出した。

今回の福島の事故で問題になるのは、内部被曝。

今の状況は日本のメディアや政府の言うとおり安全か？
どちらのデータが正しいか？
結果は10年後に出るでしょう。

薬害エイズ・アスベスト・水銀、すべて最初は問題ないと言ってきた日本政府。
今回こそ、 本当に問題ないことを祈ります。
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http://www.llrc.org/
Friday 1^st April
417,000 cancers forecast for Fukushima 200 km contamination zone by 2061
Scientific Secretary of the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR), Professor Chris Busby, has released calculations of the cancer incidence to be expected in fallout areas of Japan. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and official Japanese web sites he has used two methods to estimate the numbers of cancer cases. He compares these results with estimates derived from ICRP modelling.
The "Tondel" Method is based on a conservative study by Martin Tondel in northern Sweden. This examined cancer incidence during 10 years after Chernobyl. It differentiated the varying levels of land contamination and found that the disease increased by 11% for each 100 kiloBecquerels of fallout per square metre of land surface. Professor Busby has applied this factor to the zone up to 100 km from the reactors, where IAEA has reported, on average, 600kBq per sq.m radioactivity. In the 3.3 million population of this 100 km zone a 66% increase over and above the pre-accident rate is predicted in 10 years. This implies 103,329 extra cancers due to the Fukushima exposures between 2012 and 2021.
Applying the "Tondel" method to the ring between 100 km and 200 km from Fukushima, population 7.8 million but lower concentrations of fallout, 120,894 extra cancers are to be expected by 2021.
Assuming permanent residence and no evacuation the total predicted yield according to the "Tondel" method is 224,223 in ten years.
The second method is derived from weighting factors advised by the ECRR on the basis of the different ways in which different radionuclides behave in biological systems. This predicts 191,986 extra cancers in the 0 - 100km circle and 224,623 in the outer ring. Probably half of these will be expressed in the first ten years and the remainder between 10 and 50 years.
Assuming permanent residence and no evacuation the total predicted yield according to the second method will be 416,619 of which 208,310 will appear in the first ten years. There is thus good agreement between the two methods.
The ICRP method predicts 6158 additional cancers in 50 years which, among the 2½ million cancer cases expected normally in that population over half a century, would be invisible and deniable.
The report with all methods, assumptions and data as a pdf.

Professor Chris Busby on Russia Today
Professor Busby deconstructs media favourites Wade Allison, George Monbiot and other "experts". See this acknowledgement about Dr. Wakeford.